GOP Love for Johnson Exceeded Only by Democratic Disdain. @baseballot, 2022 Election (348 posts) Each currently enjoys an extraordinary PARG of +75 or higher. One reason may be that voters are more polarized in general. Mandela Barnes in the general election in Wisconsin, NBC News projected. But what we cant be as confident about is whether its reversible.. Johnson said it was not his "job is not to micromanage a private company" and that putting the jobs in a different state would actually "benefit Wisconsin, Oshkosh, and Oshkosh workers. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images), Johnsons Standing in Wisconsin Declined Over Bidens First Year in Office. Raphael Warnock of Georgia, Mark Kelly of Arizona and Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada are all rated Toss-ups, while Sen. Maggie Hassan 's race in New Hampshire is . Republican Ron Johnson of Wisconsin had the third lowest approval rating (37%) among U.S. The Perks Workers Want Also Make Them More Productive, Then again, a senators PARS score isnt everything. He has lost significant ground in the past few years with key voting groups such as women, moderates, independents and suburbanites, including voters in the once lopsided GOP stronghold of the WOW counties outside Milwaukee. In the race for governor, Democratic incumbent Tony Evers and Republican construction executive Tim . That poll . Libertarian Seth Cordell and independent . trails Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes by seven points his largest deficit in a key race that could determine which party controls the Senate according to a poll from Marquette University Law School released Wednesday, as Johnson faces several political controversies. This made him the second-most unpopular senator out of the 100 currently serving, after only McConnell; Kentucky voters disapprove of him by a 60%-33% margin. On the flip side, Republican Sen. Ron Johnson has one of the worst PARS scores (-18); despite his home state of Wisconsin having an R+4 partisan lean, his net approval rating is -14 percentage points. Her net approval rating in the Morning Consult poll has been on the decline over the past two years, but she still has a solid +13 net approval rating. The United States of America has 100 senators, and all are constantly under public scrutiny. Nationally, Sen. Joe Manchin is best known as a thorn in liberals side because he has opposed President Bidens agenda on the social safety net, voting rights, abortion and more. Theres such a striking decline, and its a decline that has been sustained through 2020, 2021 and now into 2022. The two-term senator has real political strengths: incumbency, an enthusiastic GOP base and the political tailwinds of running in a midterm election against the party of the president. Note that the partisan leans in this article were calculated before the 2018 elections; we havent calculated FiveThirtyEight partisan leans that incorporate the midterm results yet. The poll also did head-to-head matchups of incumbent Republican U.S. In 2016, Johnson easily outperformed Donald Trump on the same ballot in these three counties. Quarterly polls conducted from 2017-2021 among representative samples of at least 2,517 registered Wisconsin voters, with unweighted margins of error of up to +/-3 percentage points for responses shown. In that five-month stretch, he averaged a net rating of minus 8. Reagan's job approval ratings in the first years of his term were hurt by the bad economy, and the last years of his administration were marred by the negative . But it has also been pronounced among some more politically mixed groups that arent as lopsidedly red or blue. I'm just trying to convey the truth. Johnsons rhetoric on these issues has attracted a great deal of attention and controversy. A spokesperson for Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., says he was unaware of an exchange between his staff and that of Vice President Mike Pence on Jan. 6, 2021. Wednesday, August 17, 2022, 2:25pm. RCP House Ratings, Map. President Joe Biden narrowly carried Wisconsin in the 2020 election. Johnson, 67, has also been a magnet for criticism from Democrats who say he has spread harmful conspiracy theories about the coronavirus and the integrity of the 2020 election, among other controversial remarks. Mandela Barnes is the choice of 46%. The state has shifted right since Johnson's 3.4% win in 2016, and on paper, he chould be well positioned to win as a Republican running in a midterm with a Democratic president with low approval ratings. And the dividing lines over Johnson have deepened since he was last on the ballot in 2016. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images), Barnes tops Johnson by 7 points in Wisconsin Senate race: poll, Ron Johnson tries for a rebrand after years of controversy and Democratic attacks, 'Out of touch': Wisconsin's Barnes and Johnson prepare for general election campaign defined by attacks. In the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, Barnes still leads, with 25% of the vote versus 21% for Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry, 9%for state treasurer Sarah Godlewski. Its based on the same premise as my Popularity Above Replacement Governor (PARG) statistic1 that its a good idea to think about politicians popularity in the context of their states partisanship. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501 (c) (4), 501 (c) (5) or 501 (c) (6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of . Cory Gardner of Colorado, Joni Ernst of Iowa, Thom Tillis of North Carolina and John Cornyn of Texas. In . He simply cant introduce himself for the first time to an electorate that sees him spin further and further into the most toxic reaches.. The January 6 hearings are a dog and pony show They should be holding the Jeffrey Epstein Videotaped Every US Congressman that Visited Epstein Pedophile Island and then Epstein Blackmailed Them hearings Or how about the Joe Biden Staged a Coup in Kiev in 2014, Overthrew the Democratically Elected Government of Ukraine, Then Murdered Over 15,000 Russian Speaking Ukraine Civilians hearings. According to a Morning Consult Political Intelligence survey of all 50 states, just 37% of registered Wisconsin voters approve of Johnson, while 51% disapprove. He is also the most unpopular Republican among the broader electorate who is up for re-election next year. And if he is able to maintain a positive net approval rating (its +6 currently), that will be a sign of life for his candidacy. Today, the Democrat wins, he said. Johnson, who is one of Trumps biggest supporters in the Senate, has come under fire in recent months for controversial remarks, including arguing Social Security and Medicare should be categorized as discretionary spending, spreading misinformation about Covid-19 vaccines potentially causing AIDS, saying he doesnt trust the FBI after it searched Trumps Mar-a-Lago estate last week, and sending text messages to aides revealed at the January 6 hearings indicating he wanted to hand-deliver fake electors to former Vice President Mike Pence during the 2020 election. Any off-year election is going to be a referendum on Joe Biden, which is why its going to be a really difficult year for Democrats in places like Wisconsin, said former Wisconsin radio host Charlie Sykes, an early proponent of Johnson during his 2010 bid whos turned critical of the senator and the Trump-inspired GOP. RCP Senate Ratings, Map. As they have for years, three northeastern, blue-state Republicans lead the way: Govs. Tony Earlagainst his four potential Republican challengers, with Evers leading all four and Kleefisch running closest to the governor. Stacker has compiled data ranking all of them based on their popularity and approval rating. Franklin is professor of law and public policy at Marquette Law School, and director of the Marquette Law School Poll, And we see that downward movement across most of the groups we looked at. But Democratic Gov. But partisanship isnt the only factor in Senate races (yet); a senators popularity can still make a difference. You must be an Urban Milwaukee member to leave a comment. This story was republished on Jan. 16, 2023, to make it free for all readers. Ron DeSantis of Florida and Greg Abbott of Texas have seen their approval ratings dip amid an alarming rise of Covid-19 infections and hospitalizations in both states over the past two months, . At the same time, Johnson has grown that much more unpopular among groups that tilt Democratic, tilt to the left and were already negative toward him. MU poll also shows Michels/Kleefisch in virtual tie in GOP primary for governor. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wisc.) More: The fight over Ron Johnson's US Senate seat will put Wisconsin back in the national spotlight in 2022. For all these reasons, some nonpartisan analysts think Johnson has a better than even chance of getting reelected. Ron Johnson (R)* Bio | Campaign Site. Wisconsin is over and over the one percentage point or less state the land of the nail-biter, said Ben Wikler, chair of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin. Fifty-one percent of voters disapprove of his performance, including 56 . Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) insisted Sunday that his low approval ratings are not at all his fault and that he is "not a polarizing figure." Johnson made the comments during an interview with journalist Adrienne Pedersen on Milwaukee television . How Every Senator And Governor Ranks According To Popularity Above Replacement, reinstate former President Donald Trumps account, What The 20 Republicans Who Voted Against Kevin McCarthy Have In Common. The correlation between senatorial approval rating and partisan lean is 0.44; the correlation between gubernatorial approval rating and partisan lean is -0.11. Post author: Charles Franklin; Post published: August 17, 2022; Post category: Poll Release . The question is: What will those suburban swing voters think? PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES. That gap is significantly bigger than it was from 2013 to 2019. Like we did for PARG, we can use PARS as a tool to assess the 2020 Senate elections specifically, to give us clues about which of the senators whose seats are up in 2020 might be poised to over- or underperform their partys presidential ticket. Instead of moving to the center, though, as he faces reelection this fall, the Wisconsin senator has . According to the survey of about 800 registered voters, Democratic Governor Tony Evers' approval rating slid from 50% in August to 45%. Jon Tester (+33 PARS) and Sherrod Brown (+20 PARS), who have managed to win multiple elections despite hailing from red states. PPP recently conducted a poll for 314 Action in Wisconsin and found that the state unsurprisingly continues to be closely divided politically about a lot of things but not its feelings about Ron Johnson. Both Kelly and Republican State Attorney General Derek Schmidt won their respective nominations with little opposition. Raphael Warnock, Mark Kelly, Maggie Hassan and Catherine Cortez Masto all have PARS scores of at least +7, suggesting that they are capable of outperforming the base partisanship of their state. Richard Nixon 1969-74. 2023 CNBC LLC. Americans vote for the politician they hate the least, not the politician they support. If the same state had a Republican senator with the same approval rating, the PARS would be -5 . Johnson, 67, has also been a magnet for criticism from Democrats who say he has spread harmful conspiracy theories about the . (That said, he did win by only 20 points, several points worse than the states partisan lean, suggesting that his unpopularity did have some effect. Multiple polls also show Johnson's approval ratings underwater. Nathaniel Rakich is a senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight. Several conservatives involved in the state argued that Johnson casting himself as foe of Biden and the national Democratic brand could help shore up his intraparty standing. Incumbent Sens. And hes not the only Democrat with a lot of cross-party appeal; in fact, the 16 senators with the highest PARS scores all caucus with the Democratic Party. Given the history of midterms and President Bidens negative job ratings, 2022 is expected to be a good year for Republicans. With the help of Morning Consult, which polls the approval ratings of U.S. senators every quarter, weve created a statistic that Im playfully calling Popularity Above Replacement Senator (PARS). If youre running in a purple state and its a Republican year, none of that matters., Eli Yokley is a senior data reporter at Morning Consult covering politics and campaigns. Approval rating Approval Disapproval rating Disapproval Net approval. Approval Ratings (130) PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES. Americans Like Bidens Student Debt Forgiveness Plan. Many conservatives see Barnes, an outspoken progressive whos called House progressive Squad member IIhan Omar of Minnesota brilliant, as the perfect foil for Johnson to caricature as extreme. The questions are: What happens to the political environment is it good enough that it can lift him over the top? Mandela Barnes - Feb 1st, 2022 Re-election Bid Just the Latest Lie From Ron Johnson - A . Jones is a Democratic senator in R+27 Alabama, so hes fighting an uphill battle. Comparing Johnsons average net rating in 2019 with his average in the four most recent Marquette polls, Johnson has gone from: That suburban erosion can also be found in the WOW counties, the three suburban counties outside Milwaukee that for decades were a bedrock source of lopsided Republican support: Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington. Senator, led by Lt. . Gas prices have plummeted. By this time in the 2016 election cycle, Johnsons ratings had already begun to improve, from minus 11 in the fall of 2015 to minus 4 in February of 2016 to plus 1 in March of 2016. Faircloth's loss came in a year in which the President, Democrat Bill Clinton, had an approval rating in the 60s. PARS, like PARG, is calculated by measuring the distance between a politicians net approval rating (approval rating minus disapproval rating) in her state and the states partisan lean (how much more Republican- or Democratic-leaning it is than the country as a whole).2 Take West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin as an example. We want to hear from you. Each has a PARS between +1 and -3, indicating that their net approval rating is in line with their states partisan lean. According to the latest figures, taken from surveys conducted among 10,496 registered Wisconsin voters between Oct. 1 and Dec. 31, 36 percent of Badger State voters approved of his job performance, 51 percent disapproved and 13 percent had no opinion. The world has been led by intensive and extensive waves of darkness from renaissance all the way down to the Covid crisis. The . If the magic of 2016 (for Johnson) was to convert dont knows to favorables, this year it looks like people who didnt have an opinion are being converted into unfavorables, said Franklin. Sykes agreed the Democratic Party has what it takes to pull off a victory, but warned that a lot of what happens in November may be out of their control. . He ran behind the other three, with 44% versus 46% for Barnes, 43% versus 45% for Godlewski and 43% versus 44% for Nelson. Baker, Hogan, Beshear and Edwards arent on the ballot this year; Baker and Hogan are retiring, while Kentucky and Louisiana elect their governors in odd years. "First of all, I'm not a polarizing figure. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., is one of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents, with the Cook Political Report rating the Wisconsin race as a toss-up and the race for Pennsylvania's open Senate seat as . The Republican is currently seeking reelection to a third term, breaking a promise to serve no more than two. Biden Job Approval in All 50 States. (That last figure is based on a four-poll sample of 339 WOW-county voters, with a margin of error of 5 percentage points). Finally, the senator who ranks last in PARS is also up for reelection in 2020, and its a big name: Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. In October, Johnson said that the top 1% of earners already pay "pretty close to a fair share. According to FiveThirtyEights presidential approval tracker,5 41.4 percent of Americans approve of the job Biden is doing as president, while 52.6 percent disapprove (a net approval rating of -11.2 points). According to the latest Morning Consult poll, which covered the first three months of 2019, Manchin had a +5 net approval rating. Governors net approval ratings (approval ratings minus disapproval ratings) for the first three months of 2022 relative to the FiveThirtyEight partisan leans of their states. Youre ridiculous. New Marquette Law School Wisconsin survey finds Barnes with 7-point lead over Johnson in U.S. Senate race, Evers ahead of Michels by 2 points in the race for governor, and Biden approval rating unchanged . Got a confidential news tip? The souring has been steepest among independent voters in Wisconsin. His net favorability improved during the campaign year of 2016 from net negative to net positive. Angus King and Bernie Sanders are considered Democrats for the purposes of these calculations. Around a quarter of Wisconsin Republicans (24 percent) disapprove of his job performance. Barnes, the current lieutenant governor of Wisconsin, leads Johnson 51% to 44%, up from a narrow two-point lead he held in June, when polls showed Barnes had the support of 46% voters in the . I gave thousands of dollars to Democratic Candidates and I continue to get phone calls to contribute more I picked up volunteers from Chicago to knock on doors in Waukesha County for John Kerry in 2004 I collected signatures to Recall Scott Walker in Brookfield, Wisconsin in 2011 and 2012 I never voted for a Republican since I started voting in 1972.. That being said, I just dropped out of the Democratic Party after 50 years of loyalty I am a devout Christian and a Catholic I refuse to condemn my soul to hell for a bunch of evil, corrupt, lying, war mongering, mass murdering, pieces of human excrement like Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, Tammy Baldwin, Ben Wikler, Mark Pocan, Adam Schiff, and AOC. Pay no attention to countless testimonies? It began in the age of enlightment (renaissance). 2023 www.jsonline.com. Yet, even though his net approval rating has long been underwater, he easily won reelection in 2020 thanks to Kentuckys overwhelming Republican lean. So, its not a short-term fluctuation, but a strong trend, said pollster Charles Franklin, who provided the data used here. 2020 Senate Elections (55) Voters do not. Lyndon B. Johnson 1963-69. Partisan Lean (5). It's just that people in the legacy media call me one and all of a sudden, you become one. And you might expect Democratic Gov. Chris Sununus net approval rating is +30, so he is expected to comfortably win reelection. Democratic Gov. A Democratic senator with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARS of +9 (2+7 = 9). She pointed to tax breaks he supported, that benefited big donors to his campaigns. He does so despite woeful approval ratings among Wisconsin . WISN host Adrienne Pederson grilled Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) about his toxic brand and his low approval ratings.In an interview on Sunday, Pederson asked Johnson how he planned to win re-election . The Wisconsin Republican remains deeply disliked by his constituents. Voicemail to me on election night 18 yrs. In July, in our last survey, President Biden's approval rating was 33 percent, one of his worst results of the cycle. while Evers' approval rating remains above water. But that isnt likely to be enough in a state that produces such narrow margins of victory. Governors running for reelection in swing states also have some very different PARGs that explain why some of them are vulnerable this year, while others probably dont have anything to worry about. 36% of Wisconsin voters approved of Johnsons job performance and 51% disapproved in the fourth quarter of 2021. Democrats have zeroed in on Johnson's seat as they fight to hang onto their razor-thin Senate majority. This version of partisan lean, meant to be used for congressional and gubernatorial elections, is calculated as 50 percent the state or districts lean relative to the nation in the most recent presidential election, 25 percent its relative lean in the second-most-recent presidential election and 25 percent a custom state-legislative lean. Early polling indicates a tight race. Heading into this years campaign, though, Morning Consults quarterly tracking shows Johnsons approval rating severely underwater. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Free shipping for many products! Since 2015-16, Johnsons popularity rating has gone from minus 50 to minus 73 with Democrats; from minus 54 to minus 76 with liberals; from minus 31 to minus 45 with nonreligious voters; and from minus 19 to minus 32 with urban voters. Everss PARG is just +1, suggesting perceptions of him are strongly dependent on partisanship. Condition: --. Similarly, if you were to look at state partisanship alone, you might assume that Democratic Sens. The survey released Wednesday found slipping approval ratings for Democratic Gov. No matter who wins the 2020 presidential election, they wont be able to get much done if their party doesnt also win the Senate. An approval rating is a percentage determined by polling which indicates the percentage of respondents to an opinion poll who approve of a particular person or program. Contact Us, Take the next step, become a member. Have you been living under a rock? and his comments about vaccines and the 2020 election as chief examples. Susan Collins (25). So is the gap between how conservatives and liberals view him. Follow him on Twitter @jeisrael. Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information. 56% of independent voters in . . According to a, As hate crimes against Asian Americans have, Billionaire Elon Musks quest to buy Twitter isnt yet official, but if he is successful, he said this week he will. ", Johnson has also refused to fight to locate jobs in the United States instead of abroad. Rife's warrant was served Wednesday and he is awaiting . Phil Scott has not yet announced whether he is running, but it is expected that he will, as of May 12, 2022. That could make it harder for Johnson to improve his standing this time around, since public opinion is firmer. Barnes and Johnson have attacked each other as being too politically extreme and out of touch. For instance, New Hampshire is an evenly divided state, but Gov. An AARP Wisconsin poll released Thursday finds Republican Sen. Ron Johnson leads his Democratic opponent, Lt. Gov. Get The American Independent in your inbox, Former senior investigative reporter at ThinkProgress and former head of money-in-politics reporting at the Center for Public Integrity. Johnsons ratings were minus 7 last August, minus 6 last October, minus 12 in February of this year and minus 10 in April. In that sense, I think we can be quite confident the decline is real, Franklin said. That said, they are all in very safe states, so they shouldnt be in any danger. Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. Plus 18to minus 20 among voters 70 and older (the sharpest decline among any group we looked at). This also offers a glimmer of hope to Democrats who face the very real prospect of losing control of the Senate in 2022, as this falls midterm elections are shaping up well for Republicans. Some 83% of Republicans polled said they are absolutely certain to vote in the November general election, over 82% of Democrats and 66% of independents. Republican Sen. Ron Johnson will defend his seat against Democratic Lt. Gov. Biden's approval rating, right now, is mired at around 42% to 43% on average. Quarterly poll conducted Oct. 1-Dec. 31, 2021, among a representative sample of 10,496 registered Wisconsin voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-1 percentage points. GOP Candidate: Ron Johnson (Incumbent) Dem Candidates: Mandela Barnes. Among independents, 56 percent disapprove of Johnsons job performance up 14 points since the third quarter of 2020, before the presidential election while the share with no opinion fell from 28 to 16 percent during the same period. Henning, the Johnson spokeswoman, said whoever the Democratic nominee is will have to run on Joe Bidens abysmal record and that voters should be wary of anyone who supports his agenda, or worse, something even more progressive.. But Democrats believe that Johnson will suffer due to his strong support of Trump, even though polls show Republicans benefiting in 2022 due to Biden's low approval ratings. The question is whether the results in 2020 will be closer to her net approval rating or Maines light-blue partisanship; splitting the difference yields a race that leans (or tilts) Republican, which is exactly where major election handicappers have it. Jared Polis to be vulnerable in a Republican-leaning midterm in D+6 Colorado, but his net approval rating is 16 points higher than that, giving him a nice cushion in case the national environment puts his state in play. A poll taken in June 2022 found that 37% of respondents thought favorably of the senator, while 46% did not, giving him a net approval rating of -9. This poll paired each of the top four primary candidates against Johnson. If you are an existing member, sign-in to leave a comment. Barnes tops Johnson by 7 points in Wisconsin Senate race: poll (The Hill), Ron Johnson tries for a rebrand after years of controversy and Democratic attacks (NBC News), 'Out of touch': Wisconsin's Barnes and Johnson prepare for general election campaign defined by attacks (CNN). Approval ratings of the incumbent Democratic Governor, Ralph Northam, have dropped 10 points to 49%, which is still better than the average drop of 14.38% for Democratic governors. Johnson has received his highest negatives ever (the share of voters who view him unfavorably) in Marquettes last four polls. Douglas Rooks, a Maine editor, commentator and reporter since 1984, is the author of three books, and is now researching the life and career of a U.S. Chief Justice. Meanwhile, super PACs for both sides of the race are already pouring millions of dollars into Wisconsin, Forbes reported. Wisconsin Democrats are eager to win back the Senate seat, which has been occupied by Republican Sen. Ron Johnson a top conservative foil and ally to former President Donald Trump since he . That may not look like anything special, but its actually quite impressive because Manchin is a Democrat in one of the reddest states in the nation (R+30). Barnes was expected to have a tougher primary battle up until his top Democratic opponents dropped out late last month, clearing his path to the nomination, NBC projected. By contrast, Baldwin's fellow Senator Ron Johnson elicits a much less favourable net approval rating of -22%, since 49% disapprove and 27% approve of Senator Johnson's overall job performance. Johnson's campaign has lashed out at Barnes as a "career political activist" who is too far left for the purple state of Wisconsin, which Trump carried in 2016 and only narrowly lost in 2020. "I think when using federal tax dollars, you want to spend those in the most efficient way, and if it's more efficient, more effective to spend those in other states, I don't have a real problem with that. ago. Wisconsin is one of four states (including Connecticut, Minnesota and Vermont) where voters head to the polls Tuesday to pick the nominees for the general election in November. A few weeks after the 2020 election, the Crystal Ball put out an early look at the 2022 Senate races.
