"This process allows for the identification and correction of any mistakes or errors.". In 2020, a single. Will they vote for the winner in 2016? Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-44%. Clinton has to drive up the score in Philadelphia with its significant share of black voters. Here's why. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. For instance, Washington County, Maine the median bellwether county in terms of its share thats non-Hispanic white is 89 percent non-Hispanic white, which is much higher than the overall U.S. population that identifies as such (60 percent). In 132 years, no president has received more votes in his run for reelection and lost. Bellwether counties are already extremely rare, but some bellwether counties are better than others at highlighting a change in sentiment. It has a slightly higher Hispanic population than Jefferson County 19 percent, according to the Census which makes it an uphill challenge for Donald Trump. But demographic change appears to have tipped the county slightly more in Democrats' direction. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 105,724Republicans: 70,060Unaffiliated: 15,141Other: 6,079. Lake County is a perpetual nail-biter. a suburban Philadelphia county that went for Hillary Clinton in 2016 with 52.6% of the vote, and that . 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Trump2012: Obama 50%, Romney 49%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 192,278Republicans: 182,364Unaffiliated: 40,047Other: 29,484. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. It requires a lot more than pure luck.). Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton need to shore up their bases here in a place where there are more unaffiliated voters than Republicans or Democrats and major party registration is at near parity. Ryan Matsumoto is a contributing analyst for Inside Elections. It's a largely rural area of 40,000 residents that's home to a nuclear power plant, a sprawling US National Guard training facility and islands that the British Royal Navy battled for and lost during the War of 1812. This Gulf Coast county is home to Tampa and has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 1960. It went for Romney 54 to 44 percent, nearly reflecting the overall margin. The question is just how big of a margin she can run up here -- where roughly two-thirds of the states presidential votes were cast in 2012 -- to offset Trumps victories across much of the rest of the state. Some of the same messages that are going to work in Northeastern Ohio are maybe not going to work as well down here, said county GOP Chairman Alex Triantafilou. These counties turned out to vote strongly for the Democrat party in 2008, so they are the most likely to swing back to the Democrat party in 2020. ", "Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election", "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_election_bellwether_counties_in_the_United_States&oldid=1125445752, This page was last edited on 4 December 2022, at 01:36. All rights reserved. Trump, who needs to pick off one Democratic leaning state, added a rally here Sunday night. 12. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. Mr Biden "never thought he was going to bring Ohio; he didn't put the effort in," says Democrat John Brikmanis from Oak Harbor in Ottawa County, and who ran unsuccessfully for the position of county clerk last month. Key bellwether counties in the swingiest states appeared during the 2016 and 2018 cycles that can help serve as a guide for 2020. The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: Allamakee County, Iowa, in 1992 and 2020 [3] Alamosa County, Colorado, in 2016 and 2020 [3] Baldwin County, Georgia, in 1980 and 2016 [3] Benzie County, Michigan, in 2012 and 2020 [3] Blue Earth County, Minnesota, in 1988 and 2004 [3] 9. Just a tiny fraction of them truly matter. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-45%. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. It is whiter than the rest of the state but has a slightly higher level of college degrees, although still it's just 28 percent. If Trump can't win back or cut into margins in places like Prince William, Fairfax and Loudon, he likely can't win the state. Like Jefferson (but slightly more populous), Arapahoe was once a GOP stronghold that voted for Obama twice. One of the big four suburban collar counties ringing Philadelphia and the fourth-most populous county in the state Bucks is always competitive. Watch Hampton City. In other words, we are including more counties that are more likely to vote for the Democrat party. Explore the pages of this site and the links to further reports. "People are more likely to identify with a party than we've seen before," says Harrison Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics, a polling firm that works with progressive and Democratic interests. In 2020,Biden received81,281,888 votes andTrump received74,223,251 votes, according to a tally byUSA TODAY. Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES. (Independent parties will reduce the winning margin between the two major parties.) Trumps local ties notwithstanding, Clinton is likely to run up her numbers here in the northernmost part of the South Florida region. We wanted to provide an easy-to-use guide of which counties to keep tabs on that could tell you how states might vote that are crucial to the election. This one of 99 counties made up 16 percent of Obama's total vote in 2012. Suburban Denvers Arapahoe and Jefferson counties have moved in tandem for the past four elections. While Clinton has family ties to the coal-producing region her father was born in neighboring Scranton mid-July polling from a GOP pollster suggests Trump is winning big here. Salt Lake City elected its first lesbian mayor this year, and Obama actually won Salt Lake County by a few hundred votes in 2008. Lets rank these counties from highest to lowest Democrat voting percentages in the 2008 election. Iowa (6 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. This website summarizes the major findings in the 1218 months following the Nov 2020 election. The Biden campaign has run ads in the Toledo broadcast market, which conveniently covers part of Michigan, too. Ask our loving God to act in dealing with corruption, restoring justice and integrity in the nation, and prayerfully consider who you should share information with and what your role might be. He would have to really drive up big margins in the less populous counties in the mountainous Western part of the state, as well as Chesterfield (south of Richmond) and Virginia Beach. "There are more and more places in this country that are consistently red or blue, so there are fewer and fewer counties that swing back and forth from election to election," he said. That is 19 counties still standing after 10 elections! With a total turnout of 78%, Donald Trump won Ottawa County by a margin of 61% to 38%, improving his 2016 return by four points. Winnebago County: A large bellwether county in east-central Wisconsin, Mr. Trump won it in 2016, but in 2018 Democrats running for governor and the Senate performed much better. Shield icon by Freepik from flaticon.com. In at least three of the past four elections, county differed . This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. In fact, a national coalition of election security officials described the general election as "the most secure in American history," per USA TODAY. (The highest value being 66.1%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 25 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 54%-45% - 2008: Obama 57%-41%. Obama won both with 56 percent; if Trump is making them competitive, that could mean Iowa goes his way. Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. running an event, collecting and distributing information, Canvassing: Alarming Results in Multiple States, Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, The Curious Case of the 2020 Voting Rate Blowouts, How to Predict Election Results Using Registration Data, The Counties Where Votes and Party Registrations Don't Align, Investigating the Large Democrat Vote Increases, USEIPs Election Fraud Data Analytics Guide, 2000 Mules: Video Evidence of Ballot Trafficking, Voting Machines Lacking EAC Accreditation, List of Legislators Supporting Election Audits, Forensic Analysis of Mesa County Machine Images, A Vote Trafficking Parable, by David K. Clements, Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, View the County & Local Organizing Playbook, Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel, Bellwether counties are not just statistical curiosities, The odds of 21 (out of 22) of these counties getting it wrong is, We have identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. Latest voter registration totals: Unaffiliated: 49,026Democrats: 40,563Republicans: 35,146. What's the least amount of exercise we can get away with? Their concerns are real. Eastern Iowa is often seen as Democratic turf -- the last 4 Democratic presidential nominees have won Scott County. From 1980 through 2016, there were19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. We already claimed that bellwether counties are a lot more than statistical curiosities, but lets assume for the time being that normal rules of probability apply. It might be actually the best bellwether in the state, as it closely mirrored the statewide vote in both 2008 and 2012, but it has fewer voters than Jefferson, which we highlighted. Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 105,097Republicans: 87,763Democrats: 77,383. There are 25 counties with a Democrat percentage vote over 60%. It won't be enough for Trump; he also needs to likely win by more than Romney did in Brown (Green Bay) and drive up turn out in Waukesha, one of the reddest and most populous counties in the state. (Think about what it takes, and what is required for a county to always get the election right. Kerry Sheridan/AFP/Getty Images A bellwether county that includes Canton, its part of a heavily blue collar region where Trumps message could resonate. "End of day, the solution is complicated but the problem is very simple," wrote a user who shared the meme on Instagram. After Detroits Wayne County, Oakland County is the most-populous in the state. Find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. Oct. 28, 2021, 11:05 AM PDT. "We call them bellwethers because there's some fluke statistic, sometimes they are the right mix of different demographics. Answer (1 of 33): Because "bellwether counties" are a load of horse manure. We welcome any suggestions and content contibutions with credible references that help others understand the key election integrity issues. It is important to realise these counties have no allegiances whatsoever and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them based on merit. Other counties to watch: Remarkably, Obama won every county in this state in 2008. The odds of 21 counties out of 22 missing the mark is extremely remote! These counties were geographically clustered in the Midwest and in the Northeast. Trump needs to drive up the score in Cobb, which provided more votes than any other county for Mitt Romney in 2012. Other counties to watch: Clinton has to drive up the margins in counties along the shores of Lake Erie, from Lucas (Toledo) to most notably Cuyahoga (Cleveland). Recently, though, social media users have shared a meme with statistics that they claim discredits his victory. Trump also needs to drive up margins in Republican-leaning Western counties like Kent (Grand Rapids) and Ottawa (on the shores of Lake Michigan). Allegheny (Pittsburgh) is also key for Democrats. Just how big is it? Not a bad streak. A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. Did they narrowly miss out on voting for the Democrat party in 2020? Both Clinton and Trump need to turn out their bases in Fulton (Atlanta). Were doing a lot of adult retraining, he said. Here is a look at the bellwether counties for the 2020 presidential race. It's happened before. Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. Texas likely isn't going Democratic, so we aren't including this in one of our 13 counties since it's less likely to decide the outcome of the presidential election. It went with the exact margin for Romney in 2012 statewide and McCain statewide in 2008. Not anymore. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-46% - 2008: McCain 52%-47%. Bellwether counties are important, and their significance should not be downplayed. However, its bellwether status is by no means guaranteed in future elections. Green Bays Brown County voted for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, then Barack Obama in 2008, then flipped to Mitt Romney in 2012. Still, the key for Democrats is Salt Lake, which gave Obama more than half his statewide vote there. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. It's New Hampshire's biggest county by population. Since 1960, Democrats have won Rockingham County only three times. He will need to cut into Clintons advantage here in North Carolinas second-most populous county since Clinton is likely to roll up the score in Democratic Mecklenburg County (Charlotte). From his tweet: From 1984 through 2016, spanning presidential elections, seventeen US counties in several states ad voted for the winning presidential candidate in an astounding 148 of 153 times including 100% five times for five different presidents: Advertisement - story continues below 1984 Reagan 1996 Clinton 2000 Bush 2012 Obama 2016 Trump 3. Here, local Republican candidates fuelled by Mr Trump's firebrand style almost wiped Democrats off the local political map. The US Election Integrity Plan contains further news, analysis, videos and practical guides to getting involved. (The highest value being again 66.1%). In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points. The more people can work out and see for themselves that the data clearly indicates a different outcome, the better. None of them impacts the legitimacy of the presidential election. The state's demographics suggest it could go blue one day. Their ability and sensitivity to dramatically switch parties in 2000, 2008 and 2016, is outstanding. Other counties to watch: Counties where Clinton has to drive up the score include Bexar (San Antonio), Hidalgo (McAllen) and Travis (Austin). While Trump won every county in the state in the GOP primary, he posted his best result in Luzerne 77 percent. Bellwether counties in swing states show that the demographic gulf between the Democrats' more urban coalition and the Republicans' base of rural and blue collar whites is poised to grow ever . We sorted the counties from highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (in the 2008 election). Follow us on Telegram to be notified when we release the remaining articles. To make things more interesting we will only look at swing counties since the 2004 election. Watch this populous county, home to Manchester. Demographics (84) And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. Racine County2016 primary winners: Sanders, Cruz, Latest voter registration totals: 113,599No party registration. Donald Trump is highly unlikely to win here -- Democrats have a big voter registration advantage in this county where Trump owns one of his many homes. President-elect Biden on Electoral College vote: Clear victory. Ventura County, California - two misses since 1920 (in 1976 and 2016). Along with neighboring Pinellas County (St. Petersburg), the two counties include nearly a half-million registered Republicans. The Americans who almost always predict the president With a total turnout. 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Cruz2012: Obama 53%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 101,967Republicans: 75,145Unaffiliated:65,344Libertarian: 1,022. Weve been losing a lot of younger people to other areas of the country. HereIsTheEvidence.com and ElectionEvidence.com have compiled detailed databases of hundreds of items of election fraud evidence, by state. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. Cincinnati is kind of considered a little bit of an island off the rest of Ohio. (Sorry, not sorry.) Well, lets consider the percentage gap between the winning and losing party in these counties. Contributors wanted Enter Donald Trump. You can find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. But it's also not unprecedented. (It will at least show a trend away from the Republican party that would help make more sense of this situation. The divisions were everywhere. Obama won it with 53 percent of the vote while winning statewide by just 75,000 votes in 2012. Its also loaded with government contractors and defense companies hit hard by the sequester. This was important for candidates since the presidential candidate's campaign would normally foot the bill. What does this mean for the nation's political-economic divide? President-elect Joe Biden officially secured the presidency after the Electoral College met to give him and Vice President-elect Harris 306 votes. They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. Third, it lists the fractionof bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. This county, home to Reno, borders California and is at the opposite end of the state from Las Vegas. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. It also backed Gov. More than half of all Americans livein just 143 counties, per the U.S. Census Bureau. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 480,926Republicans, 323,870Unaffiliated: 229,298Others: 65,281. In the end, only Clallam County retained its streak this year. Here are the concepts we have established so far: This is just the beginning. These are the bellwether counties. Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. Bonus points if you also keep track of the trends from 2016 to 2020. Clinton will win Democratic Clark County, the states population hub and home to Las Vegas. It is the only county to go twice for Bush and twice for Obama. In 2008, Obama carried this county outside Detroit by 9 percentage points but that winning margin was cut in half in 2012 with Michigan native Mitt Romney leading the GOP ticket. The trick, for Trump, is to hold down her winning percentage here in a county that has nearly a quarter of a million registered Republicans. Increased political polarization is another reason why fewer counties are consistently indicative of presidential results in recent years. She blames much of that on the "Trump effect" - Mr Trump's ability to engage people in politics by appealing to their fears and discontents. "They followed through the whole four years. Take the time to ponder and realize that this is no mean feat! Side note Could the Florida Keys tell us who wins? Stanislaus County, California (county seat Modesto) - one miss since 1972 (in 2016). The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: List of election bellwether counties in the United States. Asingle county could have as few as 88 residents,like Kalawao County, Hawaii. Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. (The highest value being 60.6%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 4 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. ), Fact check: Biden won the most total votes and the fewest total counties of any president-elect. Some bored statistician or media hack needed something to do one day and decided to see which counties in the country consistently voted for the winning candidate. The probability is hard to comprehend, so lets figure it out for real. Watch the margins in Story (Ames) and Scott (Davenport). George W. Bush twice won comfortably in Forsyth County, the home of Winston-Salem. It has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 2000. If bellwethers were just a statistical curiosity and purely random, we could expect half of these counties to pick the winning party at the 2020 election. An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections, 1980-2016 Daniel Zimny-Schmitt1, Michael C. Harris2 1. If Clinton is getting in the mid-to-high 30s there, rather than the high 20s, she might have a shot at improving her statewide total enough to beat Trump and McMullin. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-44% - 2008: McCain 54%-45%. (subject to censorship). Now, Democrats have to drive up the margin in this populous, central North Carolina county. Other counties to watch: Denver suburbs Adams, Arapahoe, Jefferson. 108,000 people. If you take a coin and flip it 22 times. Read about our approach to external linking. "Biden did well in virtually all of the most populous counties in the U.S., which, along with a larger electorate explains why he defeated Donald Trump by over 7 million votes, despite carrying many fewer counties," Smith wrote. Hillary Clinton (578) Telegram Telegram New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Home to Tipton (population 3,199), Cedar has gone with the winner of every presidential and Senate race since 1992. The key is going to be what kind of floor McMullin has statewide and Trump's ceiling. Obama won comfortably here in 2008 but only squeaked to victory four years later. Her running mate Tim Kaine the former Richmond mayor and Virginia governor could make a difference here, Latest voter registration totals: 230,236No party registration, Loudoun County flipped from red to blue in 2008, when Barack Obama won it and held it in 2012. But its also home to the largest concentration of registered Republicans in the state. The fact that there were 19 demonstrates the incredible predictive abilities of these counties.). But its not just demographic trends driving the loss of bellwether status. If you'd like to assist or contribute in some way, learn how. The question is, how much did they get it wrong by? Lets introduce a new concept: the quality of prediction. The pattern has become clear between the last two presidential elections and governor's race early results from rural counties show Republicans up, but Northern Virginia counties, especially Fairfax, have more than made up the difference. Watch the Philadelphia suburbs, and that means white women. What are your thoughts on this article? University of New Hampshire . Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud. Colorado (9 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Driving up the margins in those places will be key for Clinton. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-47% - 2008: Obama 53%-46%. In 2008, Obama received69,498,516 votes, per the Federal Election Commission. (See the DPV 08 column in the image below.) She says that previously, "when there was a presidential election, people are watching, paying attention, and as soon as the president is elected, they forget [about politics] until it's election time again". If Clinton is going to win Utah, she will need to squeeze out as many Democrats as is possible in Salt Lake, and maybe win young people in those college towns, including Logan in Cache County (Utah State). By Dasha Burns, Antonia Hylton, Shaquille Brewster and Benjy Sarlin. So we took 15 of the states where this election has been hotly waged and identified one county in each that has gone with the winner or closely reflected the statewide margin in each. Republicans have a voter registration advantage here but in recent presidential elections, its had consistently tight margins: In 2012 Obama won it by less than 4,000 votes. 2016 Election (1135) A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. But county wins don't correlate with the popular vote, in part due to tremendousvariancein population size and density by county.
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